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| Titre : | The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable |
| Auteurs : | Nassim Taleb |
| Type de document : | document électronique |
| Editeur : | [S.l.] : Random House, 2007 |
| ISBN/ISSN/EAN : | 978-1-4000-6351-2 |
| Résumé : |
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we donÔÇÖt know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the ÔÇ£impossible.ÔÇØ For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we donÔÇÖt know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, ÔÇ£On Robustness and Fragility,ÔÇØ which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, *The Black Swan* will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. *The Black Swan* is a landmark bookÔÇöitself a black swan. **Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb** **┬á** ÔÇ£The most prophetic voice of all.ÔÇØ*ÔÇöGQ* ***┬á*** **Praise for *The Black Swan*** ÔÇ£[A book] that altered modern thinking.ÔÇØÔÇö*The Times* (London) ÔÇ£A masterpiece.ÔÇØÔÇöChris Anderson, editor in chief of *Wired, *author of* The Long Tail* *┬á* ÔÇ£Idiosyncratically brilliant.ÔÇØÔÇöNiall Ferguson, *Los Angeles Times* *┬á* ÔÇ£*The Black Swan* changed my view of how the world works.ÔÇØÔÇöDaniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate ÔÇ£[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.ÔÇØ*ÔÇöThe Wall Street Journal* *┬á* ÔÇ£Hugely enjoyableÔÇöcompelling . . . easy to dip into.ÔÇØÔÇö*Financial Times* *┬á* ÔÇ£Engaging . . . *The Black Swan* has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.ÔÇØ*ÔÇöThe New York Times Book Review* ** |
